CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten delivered a blunt warning to Democrats Sunday: if Americans keep moving the way they have since the 2020 census, the Electoral College math could get tougher — even if Democrats rebuild the familiar “blue wall.”
“In politics, we often lose sight of the long term because we’re so focused in on the short term,” Enten said, arguing the latest population estimates should be “a flashing red siren to Democrats nationwide, while bringing a big smile to the faces of Republicans nationwide.”
Enten pointed to the Census Bureau’s newest state estimates showing the decade’s biggest population gainers are states Trump carried in 2024 — “Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and of course, the great state of Arizona.” Those states also rank among the top states by numeric growth from 2024 to 2025, per the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 tables.
He contrasted that “red state boom” with what he called a “blue state depression,” naming “California… New York… Illinois, New Jersey, and… Massachusetts” as the states with the lowest domestic net migration this decade — all states Harris carried in 2024, he noted.
The stakes, Enten argued, are downstream political power: House seats (and therefore Electoral College votes) are reapportioned after the 2030 census, and electoral votes are allocated based on each state’s House seats plus its two U.S. senators.
Enten walked viewers through the scenario that grabbed headlines: Democrats can currently reach 270 electoral votes if they hold the baseline blue states and add Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — but, he said, “If in fact you apply the 2025 estimates… You only get to 263 electoral votes if you were a Democrat.”
Watch the clip below:
CNN’s Polling Expert drops On-Air warning for Democrats:
“The biggest population growth this decade: All five of the states are states that Trump won… But it's not just a red state boom. We’re looking at what I would dare call a blue state depression.”
pic.twitter.com/HJT1PUXL6a— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) February 2, 2026
Thank you for visiting