Will it be a blowout?
According to his latest 2024 presidential election forecast, polling pundit Nate Silver believes Donald Trump will defeat Kamala Harris in every battleground state for an electoral college blowout.
As polling stands currently, Silver puts Trump’s electoral college victory at 312 to 226. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 304 electoral college votes.
From Mediaite:
Crucially, Silver’s prediction places Trump ahead in all the swing states ahead of Tuesday’s ABC News-host presidential debate — which, the pollster caveats, could blunt the impact of the New York Times/Siena poll.
While Silver’s latest prediction paints a bleak picture for Harris, other models show a more competitive race. RealClearPolitics has Harris narrowly ahead with 273 electoral votes, while Project 538 forecasts a victory for Harris with 281 electoral votes to Trump’s 257. Still, the margin between the two candidates remains razor-thin in key states.
Interestingly, Silver’s forecast still gives Harris a slim edge in the popular vote, with a 56 percent chance to come out on top there compared to Trump’s 44 percent.
“This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’ lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College,” Silver teased on his Silver Bulletin blog before Monday’s update.
“And our model is more bearish on Harris still because of its convention bounce adjustment and its assessment of economic ‘fundamentals.'”
“You’re welcome to debate the mechanics of the adjustment, but recent polls confirm its basic hypothesis that there’s been a shift in momentum against Harris,” Silver continued.
More over at Mediaite:
Nate Silver's Latest Forecast Has Trump Winning Every Single Swing State in Electoral College Blowout https://t.co/Qb3HX94n2q
— Mediaite (@Mediaite) September 9, 2024
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