New Jersey’s governor’s race just got wild. Democrat Mikie Sherrill may be up — but not by much.
A new Rutgers–Eagleton poll shows Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli 50% to 45%. On paper, that’s a five-point edge. In reality? Trouble.
The same pollster missed by 5 points in 2021 — and by 14 in 2024.
“This garbage pollster missed by 5 in 2021 and 14 in 2024. I’m now convinced it’s really Jack +2,” political commentator Matt Rooney fired off.
Even worse for Democrats — Sherrill’s lead has cratered from 20 points in June to barely inside the 4.7-point margin of error.
Poll director Ashley Koning admits the race is tightening fast: “Polls show a close race as voters tune in and opinions solidify, but the outcome will ultimately hinge on each campaign’s turnout operation.”
The numbers tell the story:
• July: Sherrill +20 (51-31)
• August: Sherrill +9 (44-35)
• October: Sherrill +5 (50-45)
That’s big momentum for Ciattarelli.
Even issue by issue, the GOP challenger is gaining ground: voters trust him more on the state budget (45-39) and taxes (44-37) — the pocketbook issues that move New Jersey.
Meanwhile, both candidates are underwater in favorability, but Sherrill’s collapsing numbers have Democrats sweating bullets.
The Rutgers-Eagleton poll surveyed 795 likely voters between Oct. 3–17 with a ±4.7% margin of error.
Bottom line? If history’s any guide, that “Sherrill lead” may really be Ciattarelli country.
More over at The New York Post:
Why NJ gov poll that shows Mikie Sherrill up 5 points is actually really bad news for her https://t.co/NB5V6AXk7v pic.twitter.com/X7Aj7rmirT
— New York Post (@nypost) October 22, 2025
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