InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group jointly polled various aspects of President Donald Trump’s response to the Iran-Israel war in a survey conducted June 23-24 (1089 LV; MOE 2.9%).
The survey found:
• Opinion of Trump’s ” decision to bomb facilities”: Approve 58%, Disapprove 39%
• Opinion of Trump’s “efforts to have Iran and Israel maintain the current cease fire”: Approve 66%, Disapprove 20%
• Opinion of Trump of “how President Trump has handled the war”: Approve 60%, Disapprove 37%
During Wednesday night’s Hannity (watch the clip above), InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery and Trafalgar pollster Robert Cahaly explained why the approval ratings for Trump’s recent actions were strong versus earlier polling in certain surveys suggesting otherwise. Here are the major talking points:
• The two polling firms have accurately polled Trump’s results in three presidential cycles. Their respective data collection and weighting methods tend to “find” Trump voters and those who approve of him at more accurate levels. As noted in rankings by RealClearPolitics, Activote, Atlas Intel, and others who have ranked pollsters based on error rate, the two firms have performed at the top among public pollsters through three Trump election cycles.
• The public’s opinion of the decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities was mixed at first but increasingly moved toward approval of the actions in following days.
• The very limited nature of the U.S. response met the public’s obvious desire for responding without expanding the U.S. role in the region or requiring “boots on the ground.”
• An earlier survey published by another cable news organization, which shows American’s disapproving Trump’s bombing of the facilities, was not specific. It asked the respondent of their opinion of Trump’s decision “to take military action in Iran?” Because the question was very broad and implied what could be interpreted as a more expansive “military” response by Trump, it was Towery and Cahaly’s opinion that the question did not reflect the actual limited nature of Trump’s response. Thus yielding a likely inaccurate measure of approval for the mission.
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