According to a new Havard-Harris poll, former President Donald Trump is outperforming Vice President Kamala Harris with swing state voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
…that’s 93 electoral votes on the line.
The former president is up 48% to 46%, with 6% undecided or leaning toward a third-party candidate.
From The New York Post:
Trump is stronger with independent voters, leading 44% to 40% among the swing cohort in swing states. Voters who have made up their minds already also back Trump, 52% to 47%, leaving Harris to rely on voters “still weighing their choices.”
Key to Trump’s performance in this poll is his appeal to places and demographics Republicans have ceded for decades.
The former president shows strength with urban voters, with 42% support; if that holds, it inverts a long-standing theory Republicans can’t win big cities.
Trump also demonstrates strength with black voters, taking 22%, which would be a dramatic improvement on his 13% with that group four years ago and 12% in his 2016 victory.
Finally, the survey shows the ex-prez making gains with college-educated voters, who have been a source of strength for Harris in other polling, as he ties her at 49% with the booksmart set.
Trump is also performing well with early voters, as Republicans and GOP-leaning independents seem to have made their peace with casting ballots before Election Day, thus reversing a structural advantage for Democrats during the 2020 pandemic election.
Notorious pollster Nate Silver reported seeing movement in support of Trump in battleground states this week, but stresses the election outcome is still “literally 50/50.”
There's been about 1 point of movement toward Trump in MI/WI/PA. Not much elsewhere. But that's enough to take things from 55/45 Harris to a pure 50/50.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2024
More over at The New York Post:
Trump outperforming Harris with swing-state voters — including the early birds https://t.co/mvj9OJ53di pic.twitter.com/vhhBG0pFh5
— New York Post (@nypost) October 15, 2024
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