2024 Election

LATINOS FOR RFK: Strong Polling Shows Third-Party Candidate Could Doom Joe in NV, AZ; Report

posted by Hannity Staff - 4.04.24

According to a report from Politico, third-party presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling well with Latino voters and it could mean big trouble for President Biden in Nevada and Arizona.

“Kennedy is a golden name in Democratic politics and any support he derives comes almost totally at the expense of Biden,” Fernand Amandi, Obama’s Hispanic pollster for both of his campaigns, told POLITICO Magazine.

From Politico:

Kennedy’s popularity appears to be a function of name recognition and a general lack of enthusiasm for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, not to mention voters brushing their views onto the somewhat empty canvas of his candidacy. The poll of 2,010 registered Latino voters found Kennedy winning one in five young Latino voters, and also reported him capturing a sizable 17 percent Latino support in Arizona and an even more robust 21 percent in Nevada— the highest number among the battleground states polled. The drag on Biden’s Latino support was so great in the survey that Trump was winning among Hispanics overall in 12 battleground states, 41 percent to Biden’s 34 percent.

It’s hard to overstate just how small Biden’s margin for error is in either Arizona or Nevada. In 2020, when Biden became the first Democrat to turn Arizona blue since Bill Clinton in 1996, he won the state by less than 11,000 votes. In neighboring Nevada, his cushion was 34,000 votes, just 2.4 percentage points, and the state has continued to move toward Republicans since. The GOP knocked off Steve Sisolak in the midterms — the only incumbent Democratic governor to lose in 2022 — and came within 8,000 votes of doing the same to Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina senator.

Nationally, those close to the Biden campaign wave away Kennedy’s possible impact and say they don’t believe the 70-year-old former environmental lawyer and son of former New York Democratic Sen. Robert Kennedy will get more than 1 percent of the vote. Yet even if he doesn’t, that’s still enough to alter the outcome — using the 2020 vote totals, 1 percent would still triple Biden’s winning margin four years ago.

“It’s a big threat to them if Kennedy gets on the ballot in these two states. He would be pulling more from Biden,” said Mike Noble, the founder of Arizona-based polling firm Noble Predictive Insights, which does polling in both states. “That road to 270 [Electoral College votes] runs through the Southwest, and for them to dismiss him is silly.”

More over at Politico:

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